Griffin Smith

GVPT200

Blog Post #3

                                                           CHINA RISING

     Within the past decade, and especially following the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, China has come into the spotlight as a new economic powerhouse and has often been sensationalized as the state that will inherit the throne of global hegemony from the United States and completely reshape the world order.  John G. Ikenberry details many of these perceived possibilities in his article “Rise of China and the Future of the West”.  Because this article was published five years ago, I will argue against some of Ikenberry’s predictions based on how China’s standing and how the West’s response to China have changed up to the present day.

     All things aside, it must be conceded that China’s rise to power and economic prestige in the global market is remarkable.  From struggling under the rule of Mao Zedong until the 1970s to the reforms made by Deng Xiaoping and the Nixon trade agreements to now being considered almost neck and neck with the United States as the seat of power and the champion of the world economy is a breathtaking transformation.  While China’s rise is impressive, I would contend that some opinions and estimations considering China’s true power and ability to essentially reshape the global economy around itself are a bit overstated.

     Firstly I would like to delve into the viability of the Chinese military as a means of becoming more powerful.  To do this, we must analyze exactly how the leading nations of today’s world came to power and geopolitical prestige. In almost all cases (Russia, U.S., Britain, France, etc.), the nations which currently dominate world politics reserved their “piece of the pie” long before any international organizations existed, when imperialism was the common mode of gaining geopolitical influence.  With the genesis of the United Nations and other international security treaties and organizations, it is virtually impossible for a nation-state to seize power or territory in such a massive respect as say the U.S. or the Soviet Union did.  Even if international organizations did not hinder a potential power grab, it is doubtful that China has the naval power to expand in the Pacific as say Imperial Japan did.  Furthermore, the U.S. has escalated its military presence in the Pacific and engaged in further multinational military training exercises, likely with the goal of maintaining the balance of power and making sure China doesn’t get any ideas.

     Secondly, while China is booming economically, I doubt that it will replace the United States in the world economy.  China’s economy is rooted in manufacturing and export, primarily to the U.S. in exchange for treasury bonds.  Thusly, our two nations are heavily intertwined.  If China truly wishes to thrive economically, it would be far more beneficial to simply follow suit with the West than to try and reorganize the world economy around itself.  Regardless, it is doubtful that China would be able to do otherwise.  While it has substantial trading and manufacturing power, China is facing numerous strains.  The economic prosperity seen in its thriving coastal cities like Shanghai and its capitol Beijing is not present in the rest of the nation, especially in the rural areas inland.  Much of China’s internal revenue has been a product of the massive construction projects in the cities; construction that is now slowing and halting because of lack of funding.  This has led to many new construction projects being abandoned incomplete or having been recently finished, constituting a great deal of wasted funds.  All this, coupled with rising international pressure against China’s labor and human rights policies and the new initiatives to revamp the domestic U.S. economy by supporting American manufacturing, leads many economists to believe that China’s economic growth will soon plateau.

     In conclusion, while China’s economic growth has been sudden and substantial, it is unlikely that it will overtake the United States economically or replace the U.S. as the global hegemon.