China
has all the makings of the next world power. It has an expanding economy, a
growing middle class and the world’s largest population. Through understanding
power, we know that these are the pieces a country needs to assemble their own
dominant military. The possibility of China becoming a truly dominant regional hegemon
is not one that escapes policy makers in the United States. History indicates
that at some point, China will want more power on the international stage, the
question becomes what is to be done about it. John Mearsheimer, a realist,
argues that it is up to the United States to become military foes with China
now before it is too late. Ikenberry argues that the United States can control
China’s rise in a favorable way. Through understanding the importance of trade,
we can see that Ikenberry has the best approach to the rise of Chinese power.
To assess what should be done about the growing influence
of China we must first determine how it will act as it grows in prominence on
the world stage. When a country is on the rise and capable of changing the
order of global politics, policy makers tend to classify them into four
possible categories. They either want to accept risk or not, and they either
want to revolutionize the current order or leave it mostly intact. Most
historians compare modern day China to the rise of Germany before World War 1.
While they are seemingly ever expanding and will risk a lot for power, the fact
of the matter is they just want their deserved piece of the international pie.
Mearsheimer argues a war between China and the United States is inevitable,
however China is in the category it’s in due to the peaceful policy of trade
implemented by the United States. This is exactly the idea of Ikenberry. We
have the capability to incorporate China into the so called Western Order.
Through trade, we have been able to stall China’s ambitions, since their
continued economic wealth can only remain if the current political order
remains intact. A hostile strike, a buck-passing to Japan, or constant trade wars
as suggested by Measheimer has the capability of turning China into the global
power we fear.
There is however another significant advantage to trade.
Most American’s see our trade deficit along with our loans and figure we will
be forever in debt with the Chinese government. However, when examined more
closely, one can completely turn this idea on its head. The fact is while we
rely on Chinese manufacturing, they rely on us as customer even more. People
fear China will weaken the United States, by calling on its debt. The reason
this would never happen is because it would cause the United States to default,
which would throw the US into recession, which in a chain reaction, would cause
a recession in China. China relies on United States trade. Not only to continue
to grow on the international stage, but to also keep domestic order. A
recession, has different impacts on different countries. While here it forces
people to have animosity toward the government, in China, it could start a
revolution .With the growing middle class the Chinese people could use hard
economic times as fuel to a revolutionary fire. They could quickly turn on
their, free speech controlling, communist government, and could completely change
the goals of China on the world stage. When examined closely we see that trade
allows us to control China domestically giving the United States the upper
hand.
The United States has enjoyed a unipolar system since the
end of the Cold War. However all things come to an end and this case is no
exception. China will almost inevitably turn global politics back into a bipolar
system. Until they fully achieve hegemony, the United States has the capability
to dictate the path China takes along with its goals on world power. Through
the use of trade and globalization, the United States can simply assimilate
China into the Western Order and continue to reign supreme on the world stage.
CITATIONS
·
Mearsheimer: Tragedy of Great Power
Politics
·
Ikenberry: Rise of China and the Future
of the West
·
Lecture 11:21st Century Power
Politics.
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